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 diurnal cycle


Neural general circulation models optimized to predict satellite-based precipitation observations

Yuval, Janni, Langmore, Ian, Kochkov, Dmitrii, Hoyer, Stephan

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Climate models struggle to accurately simulate precipitation, particularly extremes and the diurnal cycle. Here, we present a hybrid model that is trained directly on satellite-based precipitation observations. Our model runs at 2.8$^\circ$ resolution and is built on the differentiable NeuralGCM framework. The model demonstrates significant improvements over existing general circulation models, the ERA5 reanalysis, and a global cloud-resolving model in simulating precipitation. Our approach yields reduced biases, a more realistic precipitation distribution, improved representation of extremes, and a more accurate diurnal cycle. Furthermore, it outperforms the mid-range precipitation forecast of the ECMWF ensemble. This advance paves the way for more reliable simulations of current climate and demonstrates how training on observations can be used to directly improve GCMs.


Super Resolution for Renewable Energy Resource Data With Wind From Reanalysis Data (Sup3rWind) and Application to Ukraine

Benton, Brandon N., Buster, Grant, Pinchuk, Pavlo, Glaws, Andrew, King, Ryan N., Maclaurin, Galen, Chernyakhovskiy, Ilya

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

With an increasing share of the electricity grid relying on wind to provide generating capacity and energy, there is an expanding global need for historically accurate high-resolution wind data. Conventional downscaling methods for generating these data have a high computational burden and require extensive tuning for historical accuracy. In this work, we present a novel deep learning-based spatiotemporal downscaling method, using generative adversarial networks (GANs), for generating historically accurate high-resolution wind resource data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting Reanalysis version 5 data (ERA5). We achieve results comparable in historical accuracy and spatiotemporal variability to conventional downscaling by training a GAN model with ERA5 low-resolution input and high-resolution targets from the Wind Integration National Dataset, while reducing computational costs over dynamical downscaling by two orders of magnitude. Spatiotemporal cross-validation shows low error and high correlations with observations and excellent agreement with holdout data across distributions of physical metrics. We apply this approach to downscale 30-km hourly ERA5 data to 2-km 5-minute wind data for January 2000 through December 2023 at multiple hub heights over Eastern Europe. Uncertainty is estimated over the period with observational data by additionally downscaling the members of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting Ensemble of Data Assimilations. Comparisons against observational data from the Meteorological Assimilation Data Ingest System and multiple wind farms show comparable performance to the CONUS validation. This 24-year data record is the first member of the super resolution for renewable energy resource data with wind from reanalysis data dataset (Sup3rWind).


Thermal Vision for Soil Assessment in a Multipurpose Environmental Chamber under Martian Conditions towards Robot Navigation

Castilla-Arquillo, Raul, Mandow, Anthony, Perez-del-Pulgar, Carlos J., Alvarez-Llamas, Cesar, Vadillo, Jose M., Laserna, Javier

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Soil assessment is important for mobile robot planning and navigation on natural and planetary environments. Terramechanic characteristics can be inferred from the thermal behaviour of soils under the influence of sunlight using remote sensors such as Long-Wave Infrared cameras. However, this behaviour is greatly affected by the low atmospheric pressures of planets such as Mars, so practical models are needed to relate robot remote sensing data on Earth to target planetary exploration conditions. This article proposes a general framework based on multipurpose environmental chambers to generate representative diurnal cycle dataset pairs that can be useful to relate the thermal behaviour of a soil on Earth to the corresponding behaviour under planetary pressure conditions using remote sensing. Furthermore, we present an application of the proposed framework to generate datasets using the UMA-Laserlab chamber, which can replicate the atmospheric \ch{CO2} composition of Mars. In particular, we analyze the thermal behaviour of four soil samples of different granularity by comparing replicated Martian surface conditions and their Earth's diurnal cycle equivalent. Results indicate a correlation between granularity and thermal inertia that is consistent with available Mars surface measurements recorded by rovers. The resulting dataset pairs, consisting of representative diurnal cycle thermal images with heater, air, and subsurface temperatures, have been made available for the scientific community.


Orders-of-magnitude speedup in atmospheric chemistry modeling through neural network-based emulation

Kelp, Makoto M., Tessum, Christopher W., Marshall, Julian D.

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Chemical transport models (CTMs), which simulate air pollution transport, transformation, and removal, are computationally expensive, largely because of the computational intensity of the chemical mechanisms: systems of coupled differential equations representing atmospheric chemistry. Here we investigate the potential for machine learning to reproduce the behavior of a chemical mechanism, yet with reduced computational expense. We create a 17-layer residual multi-target regression neural network to emulate the Carbon Bond Mechanism Z (CBM-Z) gas-phase chemical mechanism. We train the network to match CBM-Z predictions of changes in concentrations of 77 chemical species after one hour, given a range of chemical and meteorological input conditions, which it is able to do with root-mean-square error (RMSE) of less than 1.97 ppb (median RMSE = 0.02 ppb), while achieving a 250x computational speedup. An additional 17x speedup (total 4250x speedup) is achieved by running the neural network on a graphics-processing unit (GPU). The neural network is able to reproduce the emergent behavior of the chemical system over diurnal cycles using Euler integration, but additional work is needed to constrain the propagation of errors as simulation time progresses.